“Should I count on Social Security in my retirement plan” is one of the most common questions I am asked (almost daily) as a financial Planner. This is a great question, and it seems that all Americans are worried about this topic. Although the media likes to make a big deal out of this subject (as it gets clicks), the truth is that the situation isn’t as dire as the media likes to make it out to be, and the fix may be easier than most people realize.
Fixing the Social Security trust fund problem involves addressing the projected shortfall in the program’s funding. By 2037 (or sooner, depending on economic factors), the trust fund is expected to be depleted, at which point Social Security will only be able to pay about 76% of promised benefits through incoming payroll taxes. Here are some potential solutions, each with its pros and cons:
Potential Fixes for Social Security
Increase Payroll Taxes
What it means: Raise the payroll tax rate from the current 12.4% (split equally between employers and employees) to a higher percentage.
Example: Raising the rate to 14.4% could eliminate most of the shortfall.
Pros: Generates significant revenue quickly and spreads the cost among workers and employers.
Cons: Increases the tax burden, which could be challenging for low-income workers and businesses.
Raise or Eliminate the Taxable Earnings Cap
What it means: Currently, only income up to a certain limit ($176,100 in 2025) is subject to payroll taxes. Earnings above that are not taxed for Social Security.
Example: Eliminate the cap or apply payroll taxes to earnings above $250,000.
Pros: Targets higher-income earners who can afford to pay more and significantly boosts revenue.
Cons: Could face political resistance and concerns about fairness.
Gradually Raise the Retirement Age
What it means: Slowly increase the age at which individuals can claim full Social Security benefits. The current full retirement age is 67 for people born in 1960 or later.
Example: Raise the retirement age to 69 or 70 over several decades.
Pros: Reflects longer life expectancy and reduces the number of years benefits are paid.
Cons: Could disproportionately affect workers in physically demanding jobs or those with shorter life expectancies.
Combination Approach
What it means: Combine multiple solutions to spread the burden and create a balanced fix.
Example: Modestly raise payroll taxes, lift the taxable earnings cap, and gradually increase the retirement age.
Pros: Shares responsibility among different groups and mitigates extreme impacts.
Cons: Politically complex and requires bipartisan cooperation.
It is likely that the combination approach is what will eventually happen. Unfortunately, because all solutions do have negative consequences politically (no politician wants to be the one to raise taxes or take away benefits), it is likely that this crisis won’t be dealt with and averted until the last minute.
I believe it is safe to assume that Social Security will be there for Americans as they enter retirement, and that the system will be reformed in time to keep current benefit levels in place.
If you would like to discuss this issue or see how it fits into your overall retirement income plan, please reach out.
Sources
- https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.html
- https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc751#:~:text=The%20current%20tax%20rate%20for,employee%2C%20or%202.9%25%20total.
- https://www.ssa.gov/faqs/en/questions/KA-02387.html#:~:text=In%202025%2C%20the%20maximum%20amount,tax%20on%20all%20your%20earnings.
- https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10035.pdf